811
AXNT20 KNHC 270947
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Mar 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the
waters offshore of NE Florida by Sat morning, reach from Bermuda
to West Palm Beach Sat night, and from 31N55W to the Turks and
Caicos Islands Sun night before dissipating Tue. Strong to near
gale-force NE winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough
to very rough seas will follow the front Sat through early Sun.
Afterward, winds will gradually diminish in areal coverage through Thu.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N11W and continues
southwestward to 00N20W. The ITCZ extends from 00N20W to 00N32W to
01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the 05S to
07N between 10W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high pressure centered over the NE Gulf continues to
extend a surface ridge across the remaining basin and provides
light to gentle variable winds over much of the E Gulf, except for
moderate NE to E winds in the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan
Channel. Over the western half of the Gulf, low pressure over
Texas and northern Mexico tightens the gradient of pressure, and
support moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds. Seas are slight
to moderate basin-wide.

For the forecast, high pressure of 1020 mb over the NE Gulf will
move NW and inland Louisiana this afternoon. A trough over the Bay
of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern
and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night,
through Tue night. The next cold front will move into the northern
Gulf early Sat morning, reach the southeast Gulf by Sun morning,
and move southeast of the basin late on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to
E winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over
the eastern Gulf Sat night through early Mon. The pressure
gradient will remain strong enough to sustain fresh to strong east
winds across the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida
through the middle of the next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin
and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally near gale-
force trades in the south-central Caribbean, including within the
Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 7-10 ft with these winds, mainly
offshore the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
and 4-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the basin. Otherwise,
moisture inflow from the tropical Pacific continue to fuel
scattered showers over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Honduras as well as the offshore waters of Nicaragua.

For the forecast, surface ridging over the subtropical Atlantic
extending across the northern Caribbean combined with the
Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trade winds
and moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia through Tue night.
Looking ahead, high pressure will build in the wake of a strong
cold front forecast to move through the western Atlantic this
weekend. The increased pressure gradient across the region will
support fresh to strong NE winds and building seas in the lee side
of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola from
Sat night through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING.

A 1037 mb high over the north-central Atlantic near 45N37W extends
a ridge across the subtropical Atlantic waters. A surface trough
slightly weakens the ridge from 27N57W to 22N60W where it is
generating scattered showers and tstms that extends between 51W
and 69W. Winds over the central and eastern subtropical waters are
moderate to locally fresh from the NE to E and seas are mainly
moderate. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are also in the Great
Bahama Bank while moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along
with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will dominate the
forecast waters through late today supporting gentle to moderate
easterly winds and moderate seas. A strong cold front will move
into the waters offshore of NE Florida by Sat morning, reach from
Bermuda to West Palm Beach Sat night, and from 31N55W to the Turks
and Caicos Islands Sun night before dissipating Tue. Strong
winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough to very rough
seas will follow the front Sat through early Sun. Then, strong
high pressure in the wake of the front will cause fresh to strong
NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across most of the
forecast region likely through Tue.

$$
Ramos
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (21:1/175)