594
AXNT20 KNHC 061036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Feb 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell... A
family of cold fronts are analyzed across the W Atlantic, mainly
W of 67W. Gale force winds prevail N of 26N between 65W-75W. Rough
seas are noted N of 24N and W of 64W. These conditions will
follow the fronts through Sat as they merge and the new boundary moves E.

A low pressure system is expected to rapidly deepen across the W
Atlantic tonight as it tracks eastward, producing a large area of
gale-force winds mainly N of 27N. Rough to very rough seas will
accompany these winds today, then as the low deepens even more and
moves NE, seas in our area are expected to peak to 30 ft N of 28N
between 54W-65W. Once the low has pulled farther northeastward
into the north-central Atlantic, wind conditions should gradually
improve starting Sun night, while the large and dangerous swells
persist into early next week.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event...
Rough seas to 14 ft in large NW swell, north of 25N and east of
40W will continue to slide eastward through early this morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N10W to 00N13W. The
ITCZ continues from 00N13W to 06S32W. Scattered showers are noted
along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high centered over the western Gulf is supporting the
western and central Gulf with gentle to moderate N to ENE winds
and moderate seas. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas
prevail for the SE Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas will
diminish this afternoon across the southern portion of the basin
as high pressure builds across the area. Fresh to strong NW winds
will follow another cold front that will move across the eastern
Gulf Fri night/Sat. High pressure will build over the basin once
again in the wake of the front and will remain in control of the
weather pattern through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening cold front curves southwestward from eastern Cuba to
over northern Belize and Mexico. Scattered showers are seen up to
150 nm southeast of this front. Fresh to strong northerly winds
and 7 to 9 ft seas are trapped behind the cold over the
northwestern basin. Strong to near-gale northerly winds and seas
at 8 to 10 ft are found at the southwest of of the basin.

For the forecast, the weakening cold front will stall from the
eastern Dominican Republic to central Panama Sat, then will
dissipate by Sat. Strong to near-gale N winds with rough seas will
follow the front today, diminishing to fresh to strong and
prevailing through Sat. Expect fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas between Colombia and Hispaniola early next week as high
pressure builds north of the area after multiple frontal passages.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warnings and Significant Swell areas.

A cold front stretches from 31N66W to 22N76W. A second cold front
extends from 31N69W to 24N75W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted up to 150 nm east of the first front. Farther east, a
weakening cold front extends westward from near the Canary Islands
to near 22N32W, then as a stationary front to 25N52W.

Outside the Gale Warning, strong to near-gale SW to NW winds and
rough seas are noted north of 24N and west of 65W. To the east,
north of 20N between 35W and 60W, moderate to fresh southerly
winds and rough seas are evident. For the tropical Atlantic from
04N to 20N and west of 35W, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and
moderate seas prevail. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin
west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds with moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, gale force winds and rough seas prevail near of
a pair of cold fronts that extend across the W Atlantic. The
fronts will merge today and the new boundary will extend from
25N55W to eastern Hispaniola Sat morning, then weaken from 22N55W
to the Leeward Islands by early Sun. A reinforcing front will move
off the northeast Florida coast early Sat, and reach from 31N55W
to the southern Bahamas and central Cuba by early Sun, then stall
and dissipate along 22N through early next week. Strong to gale-
force winds will follow the second front north of 27N this
weekend. Wave heights will gradually subside from west to east
early next week.

$$
ERA
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (21:1/175)