MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

ACUS11 KWNS 261352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261351
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-261515-

Mesoscale Discussion 2185
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...coastal MS/AL into the western FL Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 633...

Valid 261351Z - 261515Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 633 continues.

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong storms may produce gusty winds into midday
across coastal Mississippi/Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle. A downstream watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of convection oriented ahead of a cold front
are moving eastward across southern MS/southeast LA this morning.
This convection has largely been sub-severe, though some brief, weak
low-level rotation has been noted where convection intersects a
stationary boundary positioned roughly west to east near the coast
into far southern MS. Regional VWP and 12z RAOB from LIX indicate
enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs amid 40 kt effective
shear magnitudes.

With eastward extent, strong shear profiles will persist near the
coast/surface boundary. However, the stationary boundary will likely
remain very near or just offshore the Gulf coast in AL toward the
western FL Panhandle, and boundary-layer moisture steadily decreases
(dewpoints falling into the 50s F with northeast extent). This will
maintain stronger instability offshore as well. While low-level
rotation may occur with convection offshore, tornado/severe
potential is likely to remain limited, especially inland from the
immediate coast. Locally gusty winds may accompany stronger storms,
but overall severe potential will be low, precluding downstream
watch issuance.

..Leitman/Gleason.. 10/26/2025

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 31298901 31058695 30798655 30128662 29718693 29578784
29768849 30098888 30518907 31298901

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

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