02/14/2025

NOAA reports a G1 (Minor) geomagnetic Storm Watch has been issued
for 14 Feb, 2025. A coronal hole high speed stream is expected to
move into a position favorable for enhanced interaction between the
high speed stream and Earth's magnetosphere. These enhancements are
likely to cause elevated geomagnetic responses, with G1 (Minor)
storm levels likely.

From Spaceweather.com[1]: Another solar wind stream is heading for
Earth. It is flowing from a canyon-like hole in the Sun's
atmosphere. First contact with the stream on February 14th could
cause a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm with Arctic auroras for
Valentine's Day.

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4.� The
greatest expected 3 hr Kp for February 13 to 15 is 4.67.

No Minor S1 or greater solar radiation storms are expected.� No
significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past
24 hours. The largest was at February 13 at 1109 UTC.

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1 to R2, and
Minor to Moderate activity on February 13 to 15.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - February 13, 2025, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Total solar activity was highest last October in the current
11-year cycle. Since then, it has been declining, but slowly. This
is also true for flare activity. Medium strong solar flares were
produced mainly by the active region of AR3981. Some of these were
accompanied by CMEs, none of which hit the Earth directly, but
passed close enough to affect its atmosphere.

"NOAA predicted on February 8 that there was a possibility of G1
class geomagnetic storms on February 10 and 11. The prediction
turned out to be fairly accurate - although geomagnetic field
activity increased as early as February 9, it was highest on
February 10 and was elevated on February 11. Therefore, ionospheric
shortwave propagation conditions were at their worst on 10 February
and subsequently improved only very slowly in the following days.

"We now observe a large coronal hole, resembling a canyon, on the
Sun, which could be another source of enhanced solar wind. Earth
should be hit by it on Valentine's Day, or February 14. The days
ahead will also be rather unsettled, but the active regions now
rising near the southeastern limb of the solar disk will cause an
uptick in solar activity, nevertheless, causing improved propagation conditions.

"The good news at the end: at https://www.solarham.com[2] on the bottom
left, after an eleven-week hiatus, we can see a map of the entire
Sun, especially the Sun's far side, under the 'Farside Watch'
banner. So the JSOC glitch has been fixed, and after another click
on http://jsoc.stanford.edu/data/timed[3] we can read more under the
heading 'Time-Distance Helioseismic Far-Side Imaging.'"

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found online
at, https://youtu.be/v5H2QsbiCqo[4] .
�


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://www.solarham.com
[3] http://jsoc.stanford.edu/data/timed
[4] https://youtu.be/v5H2QsbiCqo

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� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/21/2025

Solar activity is expected to range from low to moderate levels
through March 15.� There is a varying chance for R1 or R2 (Minor or
Moderate) events, and a slight chance for R3 or greater events.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) levels on
February 28, March 9, and March 12 to 14.� Active levels are
predicted for March 1. Quiet, and quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period.

The NOAA Ap Index Forecast is 5 for February 21 and 22.

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center reports no space weather
storms predicted for the next 24 hours.

For the last 24 hours, solar flare activity has been at low levels
with only a C-Class observed.� The largest flare was a C8.1 on
February 19.

This flare was accompanied by a Type II radio emission and
associated CME off the Southwest edge of the solar disk. Modelling
efforts determined the bulk of the CME to miss ahead of Earth's
orbit.� However, a weak glancing influence cannot be ruled out late
on February 24.
�
Region AR3996 is the largest and most complex region on the disk but
was responsible for only one C-Class flare. Flux emergence and an
increase in interior spots can be seen in Region AR3998 but overall
the region has been fairly quiet.

Spaceweather.com[1] has an article link from the "Advancing Earth And
Space Sciences" website concerning an extreme compression of Earth's
magnetic field that was caused by the May 2024 solar superstorm.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - February 20, 2025, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"The increase in geomagnetic activity following the decrease in
solar activity is a simple phenomenon to explain: systems of
magnetic field lines over active regions in the Sun open up and
charged particles (both free electrons and the nuclei of hydrogen
atoms, or protons themselves) slip through them more easily into
space.

"In Earth's orbit, we see an increase in the solar wind and,
consequently, an increase in geomagnetic activity. At the same time,
the ionization rate of the ionosphere is increasing, while the
shortwave propagation conditions may not only worsen (due to
scattering on inhomogeneities) but also improve as the MUF may grow.
This was well known, for example, on Saturday 15 February on the
Europe-North America route.

"The only geomagnetically quiet days in the first half of the month
were 3-7 February. Then the solar wind, blowing from the long
canyon-shaped coronal hole, intensified and geomagnetic activity was
elevated for most of the second third of February. A calm trend can
be expected on most days of the last third of the month. Although
there does not appear to be a significant increase in solar
activity, it is sufficiently high. In addition, spring is
approaching, which is good news for the state of the ionosphere."

The predicted Planetary A Index is 5 for February 21 to 26, and 10
on February 27.� The predicted Planetary K Index is 2 on February 22
to 26, and 3 on February 27.� Predicted 10.7 cm solar flux is 170
for February 22 to 23, 190 on February 24, 195 on February 25, 200
on February 26, and 195 on February 27.

Sunspot numbers for February 16 to 20, 2025 were 271, 218, 187, 119,
and 123, with a mean of 183.6.

�


[1] http://Spaceweather.com

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� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/28/2025

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with a filament eruption
became visible on February 26 at 1448 UTC.� Model analysis
determined this CME to be a miss ahead of the Sun/Earth line.

Unsettled to active levels are likely on February 28 to March 1 as a
Coronal Hole influence continues, and a glancing blow is possible
from a Coronal Mass Ejection that occurred on February 25.

Solar activity is forecast to range from low to moderate levels
through March 22.

Minor to Moderate activity (R1 to R2) is possible at different
points throughout the period as active regions grow, evolve, and
return from the far-side of the Sun. There is a slight chance for R3
(Major) or greater events if any of the active regions develop
additional complex magnetic structures.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels until March 6 with periodic, weak Coronal Hole influences.
Unsettled to active levels, with isolated G1 (Minor) storming
conditions are likely from March 7 to 18 as recurrent negative
polarity Coronal Holes are expected to be in a geoeffective
position.

NOAA Space Weather[1] forecasts a 55% chance of a Class-M flare, and a
10% chance of a Class-X flare, both within the next 48 hours
(February 28 to March 1).

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - February 27, 2025, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Solar activity is now increasing, but the increase is irregular,
which causes, among other things, a decrease in the reliability of
forecasts. Geomagnetically quiet periods, especially when associated
with an increase in total solar activity (such as 20-23 February),
are accompanied by improved conditions for ionospheric radio wave
propagation. A subsequent disturbance can cause even further
improvement (which happened on 24 February).

"Following the increase in solar flare activity (from 23 February),
two proton flares were observed on 24 February. In the following
days, the Earth's ionosphere was under the influence of a
solar-derived proton rain, after which the density of free electrons
in it decreased due to recombination.

"However, the worsening of conditions was only noticeable on 25
February. The very next day, 26 February, there was an improvement,
in particular an increase in the MUF on a global scale. The jump in
the solar wind speed also contributed. However, the changes were so
rapid, even within a single day, that our assessment of the level of
conditions could have been reversed, depending on the time of day
and the frequency bands used.

"The developments described can be considered as a harbinger of a
March increase in solar activity. Since the Spring Equinox is
approaching, it will contribute to an improvement in ionospheric
shortwave propagation, more accurately called decameter waves. The
possible shorter worse spells on March 1-2 and March 5-6 will make
no difference, with the seasonal improvement not fully manifesting
itself until the second half of the month."

This weekend is the ARRL International DX SSB contest.� Information
can be found at, https://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx[2] .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[6] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[7]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

The predicted 10.7 cm flux for February 28 to March 6 is 195, 195,
190, 190, 190, 190, and 185, with a mean of 190.7.� The predicted
Planetary A Index for February 28 to March 6 is 12, 10, 8, 5, 5, 5,
and 5, with a mean of 7.1.� The predicted K Index for February 28 to
March 6 is 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, and 2, with a mean of 2.6.

�


[1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
[2] https://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

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� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/07/2025

Spaceweather.com[1] is reporting "A Hole In The Sun's Atmosphere" that
should reach Earth on March 9 and 10.

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed on
March 5 at 1150z from Region 4016. There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on March 7 and 8.

There is a chance for isolated minor solar radiation storm levels
throughout the period if any of the returning/developing
magnetically complex regions are active and produce an event.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels on March 7 to 9, 19 to 24, and on March 29.� Active levels
are expected on March 10 to 18, and then on March 25 to 28, with
possible G1 (Minor geomagnetic storm) conditions on March 12 to 15
associated with recurrent negative polarity Coronal Hole influences.

Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on as weak, glancing CME
effects continue to wane with quiet conditions prevailing on March
7.� Unsettled to active levels are expected on March 8 as CIR - a
CIR is a Corotating Interaction Region, its primary effect creates
disturbances in the solar wind by interacting between fast and slow
streams of solar plasma - effects ahead of a recurrent, negative
polarity Coronal Hole become geoeffective.

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center with its Geomagnetic
Activity forecast for March 7 to 9 has a 40% chance of Active
activity on March 8, a 40% chance of a Minor storm on March 9, a 15%
chance of a Moderate storm on March 9, and a 1% chance of a
Strong/Extreme storm during this same reporting period.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - March 6, 2025, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"The combination of relatively low total solar activity and a larger
number of geomagnetic disturbances caused a worsening of shortwave
propagation conditions in February. However, the outlook for March
is better, not least because of the approaching equinox (which
occurs on 20 March).

"Solar activity will begin to increase more rapidly after the larger
sunspot groups return to the Sun's disk (which is the half of the
Sun's surface visible from Earth). At its eastern limb we should see
their activity as early as mid-March. They will approach the centre
of the disk just around the Vernal Equinox on March 20.

"But even before that, the scenario may be somewhat different. In
the north-west of the solar disk, we see a large coronal hole, which
is likely to be the source of a strong solar wind that will probably
affect the Earth's ionosphere sooner than we expect. But this too
could be a harbinger of a further upsurge in solar activity. So -
within reason - all good news."

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[2] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[5] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[6]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

The forecast 10.7 centimeter flux for March 7 to 13 is 150, 150,
150, 155, 160, 170, and 180, with a mean of 59.3.� The forecasted
Planetary A Index for March 7 to 13 is 5, 5, 8, 15, 15, 25, and 30,
with a mean of 14.7.� The forecast Planetary K Index for March 7 to
13 is 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, and 5, with a mean of 3.6.
�


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[5] http://k9la.us/
[6] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

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� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS